{"id":2481360,"date":"2025-04-30T15:19:30","date_gmt":"2025-04-30T19:19:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/?p=2481360"},"modified":"2025-09-01T15:35:51","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T19:35:51","slug":"verilerle-ilgili-yapilmamasi-gerekenler-hedef-kitleleri-rakamlarla-yaniltmaktan-kacinmak-icin-oneriler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/hikayeler\/verilerle-ilgili-yapilmamasi-gerekenler-hedef-kitleleri-rakamlarla-yaniltmaktan-kacinmak-icin-oneriler\/","title":{"rendered":"Verilerle \u0130lgili Yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 Gerekenler: Hedef Kitleleri Rakamlarla Yan\u0131ltmaktan Ka\u00e7\u0131nmak \u0130\u00e7in \u00d6neriler!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>En titiz veri ve ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 gazeteciler bile bazen rakamlar\u0131n kendilerini ele ge\u00e7irmesine izin verebilir. Yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamalardan ve yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131klardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir, ancak okuyucular\u0131n\u0131za rakamlar\u0131 ak\u0131ll\u0131ca ve verilerin anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hikayeyi en iyi \u015fekilde anlayabilecekleri \u015fekilde sunmak da bir o kadar \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 gazetecilerin say\u0131larla ilgili yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 me\u015fhur hatalar aras\u0131nda, y\u00fczdeleri di\u011fer y\u00fczde de\u011ferlerine ekleyerek veya \u00e7\u0131kararak hesaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak yer al\u0131r. (\u00d6rne\u011fin, ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 kovu\u015fturmalar\u0131n %12&#8217;den %7&#8217;ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi %5&#8217;lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00a0<i>de\u011fil<\/i>\u00a0, yakla\u015f\u0131k %42&#8217;lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.) Bu o kadar klasik bir hatad\u0131r ki, Associated Press y\u00fczdeler i\u00e7in % simgesini kullan\u0131rken, muhabirlerden de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri \u00f6l\u00e7mek ve daha iyi do\u011fruluk ve anlay\u0131\u015f sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in &#8220;y\u00fczde puan\u0131&#8221; yazmalar\u0131n\u0131 ister. Korelasyonu nedensellikle kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak da bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli kategori hatas\u0131d\u0131r. GIJN ise &#8220;Veri\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/stories\/10-common-mistakes-data-journalism\/\">Gazetecili\u011finde 10 Yayg\u0131n Hata<\/a>\u00a0&#8221; ve &#8221;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/hikayeler\/bir-arastirmayi-mahvedebilecek-10-basit-veri-hatasi\/\">Bir Ara\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 Mahvedebilecek 10 Basit Veri Hatas\u0131<\/a>\u00a0&#8221; gibi haberlerde b\u00fcy\u00fck say\u0131sal hatalardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ire.org\/training\/conferences\/nicar-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ancak yak\u0131n zamanda d\u00fczenlenen NICAR 2025<\/a>\u00a0veri gazetecili\u011fi konferans\u0131nda bir panel,\u00a0g\u00f6zlemci muhabirlerin haber a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bozabilecek ve \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan okuyucu g\u00fcvenini zedeleyebilecek bir\u00e7ok ince rakam hatas\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131. Bu uzmanlar ayr\u0131ca, teknik olarak do\u011fru rakamlar\u0131n bile uygunsuz formatlar, metinde \u00e7ok fazla rakam bulunmas\u0131 veya bu rakamlar\u0131n daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in basitle\u015ftirilmemesi ve ba\u011flamland\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 nedeniyle okuyucular\u0131 yan\u0131ltabilece\u011fi veya \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>NICAR oturumunda\u00a0, Kaliforniya \u00dcniversitesi, Berkeley Gazetecilik Y\u00fcksek Lisans Okulu&#8217;nda veri g\u00f6rselle\u015ftirme ve ara\u015ft\u0131rma y\u00f6ntemleri dersleri veren veri gazetecisi\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/journalism.berkeley.edu\/person\/jennifer-lafleur\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jennifer LaFleur<\/a>\u00a0ve Reuters&#8217;da \u00f6d\u00fcll\u00fc veri muhabiri\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/jaimi-dowdell-19b0174\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jaimi Dowdell yer ald\u0131.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>LaFleur ve Dowdell, okuyucular\u0131 say\u0131larla yanl\u0131\u015f bilgilendirmekten veya yan\u0131ltmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak i\u00e7in \u015fu ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 sundular:<\/p>\n<p><b>Yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 kesinlik, yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/b>\u00a0Elbette, &#8220;kad\u0131nlar\u0131n %25,21&#8217;i&#8221; gibi istatistiklerin &#8220;d\u00f6rt kad\u0131ndan biri&#8221;nden daha do\u011fru oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrd\u00fcn\u00fcz. Ancak LaFleur, &#8220;%25,21&#8221; gibi kesin rakamlar\u0131n okuyucular i\u00e7in genellikle &#8220;d\u00f6rt kad\u0131ndan biri&#8221;nden daha az yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmakla kalmay\u0131p, verilerin asl\u0131nda desteklemedi\u011fi bir do\u011frulu\u011fu da yans\u0131tabilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yor. LaFleur, &#8220;Bence ondal\u0131k basamak eklemeyi seviyoruz \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu bizi ger\u00e7ekten zeki g\u00f6steriyor, ancak okuyucunun yorumlamas\u0131 zor,&#8221; diye belirtti. &#8220;Ve bazen &#8211; e\u011fer haber yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z verilerde bir hata pay\u0131 varsa &#8211; bu ondal\u0131k basamak asl\u0131nda yanl\u0131\u015f bir kesinlik yans\u0131t\u0131yor.&#8221; Uzmanlar ayr\u0131ca \u00e7o\u011fu verinin derlendi\u011fi anda teknik olarak g\u00fcncelli\u011fini yitirdi\u011fini ve bu nedenle \u00e7ok say\u0131da ondal\u0131k basamak kullanman\u0131n genellikle hem kaynaklar\u0131n hem de haberin veri kalitesi konusunda okuyucular\u0131 yan\u0131ltabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. &#8220;M\u00fcmk\u00fcnse &#8216;d\u00f6rt kad\u0131ndan biri&#8217; veya &#8216;neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131&#8217; deyin,&#8221; diye ekledi. &#8220;\u00c7ok ge\u00e7erli bir sebep yoksa, m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse rakamlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 yuvarlay\u0131n: &#8216;44.792&#8217; yerine &#8216;neredeyse 45.000&#8217; deyin.&#8221; Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 Gazeteciler ve Edit\u00f6rler (IRE) veri uzmanlar\u0131, enflasyona g\u00f6re ayarlanm\u0131\u015f \u00f6\u011fretmen maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 devlet verilerinden 53.234 dolar olarak hesaplay\u0131p ard\u0131ndan ayn\u0131 veri girdilerinden bu maa\u015f ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 53.226 dolar olarak yeniden hesaplayarak, tam say\u0131lar\u0131n kesin ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n tehlikesini kan\u0131tlad\u0131lar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, sonunda, say\u0131y\u0131 53.200 dolara yuvarlaman\u0131n daha a\u00e7\u0131k ve do\u011fru olaca\u011f\u0131 sonucuna vard\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<p><b>Say\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda &#8220;kat kat daha fazla&#8221; ifadesinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n.<\/b>\u00a0\u00a0 Muhabirler genellikle, \u00f6rne\u011fin, bir \u015feyin 500 tanesinin, o \u015feyin 100 tanesinden &#8220;be\u015f kat daha fazla&#8221; oldu\u011funu iddia ederler. Asl\u0131nda, sadece d\u00f6rt kat daha fazlad\u0131r. (Bir \u015feyin %100 artmas\u0131n\u0131n, iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya &#8220;iki kat daha fazla&#8221; oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini hat\u0131rlay\u0131n.) Bunun yerine, yeni de\u011ferin orijinal de\u011ferin &#8220;be\u015f kat\u0131&#8221; oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek daha do\u011frudur &#8211; hatta say\u0131y\u0131 orijinalin &#8220;be\u015f kat\u0131&#8221; olarak adland\u0131rmak daha da iyidir. LaFleur, &#8220;Bunu her zaman g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum; &#8216;daha fazla&#8217;dan bahsetmemenizi, bunun yerine ka\u00e7 [kat] oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6neriyorum, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc &#8216;daha fazla&#8217; okuyucular i\u00e7in de kafa kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olabilir,&#8221; dedi. &#8220;Ne zaman &#8216;X kat daha fazla&#8217; g\u00f6rsem, be\u015f kat daha fazla de\u011fil, be\u015f kat daha fazla oran kastettiklerini tahmin ediyorum.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><b>K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck say\u0131lar i\u00e7in ondal\u0131k i\u015faretini kayd\u0131r\u0131n.<\/b>\u00a0Uzmanlar, haberlerde &#8220;100&#8217;de&#8221; (y\u00fczde) ifadesinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n zorunlu veya sihirli bir yan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Okuyucunun anlamas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyorsa, muhabirler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck say\u0131lar ve taban say\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ondal\u0131k i\u015faretini sa\u011fa kayd\u0131rabilirler; \u00f6rne\u011fin, %0,07&#8217;lik bir cinayet oran\u0131n\u0131 100.000 ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na 70 cinayete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilirler.<\/p>\n<p><b>G\u00f6receli boyutlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken basit tutun.<\/b>\u00a0\u0130kili, bu noktay\u0131 sevgili (art\u0131k hayatta olmayan) kedilerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak ortaya koydu &#8211; Dowdell&#8217;\u0131n kedisi Amigo 10 kg, LaFleur&#8217;\u0131n kedisi Stanley ise 5 kg idi. Dowdell, &#8220;Amigo, Stanley&#8217;den %100 daha a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131&#8221; veya &#8220;Amigo, Stanley&#8217;nin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %200&#8217;\u00fcyd\u00fc&#8221; demenin teknik olarak do\u011fru oldu\u011funu belirtse de, her ikisinin de bir\u00e7ok okuyucu i\u00e7in belirsiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131. Bunun yerine, izleyiciler \u015fu daha basit ifadeyi \u00e7ok daha iyi anlayacakt\u0131: &#8220;Amigo, Stanley&#8217;nin iki kat\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayd\u0131.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><b>Yuvarlak say\u0131lar k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alarm olabilir.<\/b>\u00a0Dowdell, do\u011fru bir devlet veri setinden do\u011fru \u015fekilde hesaplanm\u0131\u015f, iyi sunulmu\u015f say\u0131lar\u0131n veya oranlar\u0131n bile , muhabirlerin fark etmeyebilece\u011fi 5.000 kay\u0131tl\u0131k bir web sitesi indirme s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 nedeniyle\u00a0<i>yine de<\/i>\u00a0yanl\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. &#8220;K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yaz\u0131lar\u0131 okudu\u011funuzdan emin olun &#8211; her veri setinde say\u0131larla neler yapabilece\u011finiz ve yapamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z hakk\u0131nda bilgi vard\u0131r,&#8221; diye ekledi. &#8220;Genel olarak yuvarlak say\u0131lara dikkat edin: \u00c7ok m\u00fckemmel olmas\u0131 k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 alarm anlam\u0131na gelir.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><b>&#8220;Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na&#8221; ifadesinin yaln\u0131zca ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini unutmay\u0131n.<\/b>\u00a0Dowdell, &#8220;ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na&#8221; ifadesinin anlam\u0131 konusunda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede yayg\u0131n bir yanl\u0131\u015f anlama oldu\u011funu, bunun yaln\u0131zca &#8220;ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na&#8221; anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fini belirtti. LaFleur, bazen bir toplulukta &#8220;ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na 300 cinayet&#8221; gibi abs\u00fcrt istatistiklere at\u0131fta bulunan haberlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. &#8220;Bu nedenle, \u015fiddet su\u00e7lar\u0131 veya nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen hastal\u0131k enfeksiyonlar\u0131 gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck rakamlar s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda, 10.000 veya 100.000 ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na raporland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn\u00fcz, b\u00f6ylece tam say\u0131y\u0131 g\u00f6rebilirsiniz,&#8221; diye ekledi.<\/p>\n<p><b>Say\u0131lar \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6stermedi\u011finde grafikleri kullan\u0131n.<\/b>\u00a0Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri&#8217;nin &#8220;ulusal \u00fccretli do\u011fum izni olmayan sadece alt\u0131 \u00fclkeden biri&#8221; oldu\u011fu istatisti\u011fi, bu u\u00e7 politikan\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini yans\u0131tmada yetersiz kal\u0131yor. LaFleur, bu \u00fclkelerden d\u00f6rd\u00fc d\u00fcnya haritas\u0131nda g\u00f6sterilemeyecek kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ada \u00fclkeleri oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in biraz daha az bilgilendirici olsa da,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/25\/upshot\/paid-leave-democrats.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The New York Times&#8217;\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafi\u011finin<\/a>\u00a0konuyu okuyucular i\u00e7in daha anlaml\u0131 bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2193394\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/10\/25\/upshot\/paid-leave-democrats.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-2193394 size-large\" src=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/unnamed-12-771x394.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/unnamed-12-771x394.png 771w, https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/unnamed-12-336x172.png 336w, https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/unnamed-12-768x392.png 768w, https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/unnamed-12.png 1300w\" alt=\"NYT'nin \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel \u00fccretli izin politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin grafi\u011fi\" width=\"771\" height=\"394\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2193394\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-2193394\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">New York Times&#8217;\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00fccretli izin politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir grafi\u011fi. Turuncu renkli \u00fclkeler ulusal d\u00fczeyde \u00fccretli do\u011fum izni sunmuyor. G\u00f6rsel: Ekran g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc, The New York Times.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><b>Milyarlar konusunda dikkatli olun ve \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6sterin.<\/b>\u00a0Uzmanlar, milyarlarca rakam\u0131n\u0131n medyada o kadar s\u0131k \u200b\u200bkullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bu y\u00fczden hem muhabirlerin hem de okuyucular\u0131n bu rakamlar\u0131n ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu anlayamad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Biraz perspektif: Bir milyon saniye yaln\u0131zca 11 g\u00fcn\u00fc temsil ederken, bir milyar saniye neredeyse 32 y\u0131la e\u015fittir. Ayr\u0131ca, finansal tablolarda milyonlar ile milyarlar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 derecede kolayd\u0131r. Dowdell, yak\u0131n zamanda bir\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/02\/18\/upshot\/doge-contracts-musk-trump.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">g\u00f6zlemci muhabirinin,<\/a>\u00a0Trump y\u00f6netiminin DOGE hizmetinin, kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 8 milyar dolar yerine, bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet s\u00f6zle\u015fmesini iptal ederek yaln\u0131zca 8 milyon dolar tasarruf etti\u011fini fark etti\u011fini, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131. Bir yetkilinin &#8220;8.000.000,00 dolar&#8221; ifadesini &#8220;8.000.000.000 dolar&#8221; olarak yanl\u0131\u015f okudu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><b>Soru: &#8220;Neyi unuttum?&#8221;<\/b>\u00a02021&#8217;den e\u011flenceli bir \u00f6rnekte, Ulusal Kamu Radyosu, &#8220;Be\u015f y\u00fcz yirmi be\u015f bin alt\u0131 y\u00fcz dakika: Nas\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7ersiniz; bir y\u0131l\u0131 nas\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7ersiniz?&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131, \u00fcnl\u00fc say\u0131sal s\u00f6zlere sahip\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2021\/01\/25\/959666108\/13-150-080-minutes-its-been-25-years-since-the-first-performance-of-rent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bir Broadway \u015fark\u0131s\u0131na at\u0131fta bulunarak<\/a>\u00a0&#8220;13.140.000 Dakika: &#8216;Kira&#8217;n\u0131n ilk g\u00f6steriminden bu yana 25 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131. Ancak \u015fark\u0131n\u0131n veri muhabirleri i\u00e7in de iyi bir soru olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc haberin edit\u00f6rleri, aradaki art\u0131k y\u0131llardaki yedi ek g\u00fcn\u00fc, yani her biri 527.040 dakikay\u0131 hesaba katmay\u0131 unutmu\u015flard\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ba\u015fl\u0131k &#8220;13.150.080 Dakika&#8221; olarak d\u00fczeltilmek zorunda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><b>Tasla\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fcksek sesle okuyun.<\/b>\u00a0NICAR kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, veri hikayesi taslaklar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek sesle okuman\u0131n bir\u00e7ok faydas\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylendi. LaFleur, &#8220;Hikayeleri her zaman y\u00fcksek sesle okurum; bu, nerede \u00e7ok fazla say\u0131 oldu\u011funu anlaman\u0131n iyi bir yoludur,&#8221; diye a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. &#8220;Analizlerinizi yaparken, birka\u00e7 c\u00fcmleyle a\u00e7\u0131klayabildi\u011finizden emin olun. Eskiden annemi aray\u0131p ona a\u00e7\u0131klayarak ve bir hikayem olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca anlayarak test ederdim.&#8221; Dowdell da ayn\u0131 fikirde: &#8220;En \u00f6nemli \u015fey, bulgular\u0131n\u0131z\u0131, dinleyicilerinizi bir s\u00fcr\u00fc say\u0131yla bo\u011fmadan vurgulamakt\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><b>Pop\u00fcler bir anlat\u0131ya uyan say\u0131lara dikkat edin.<\/b>\u00a0\u015eubat ay\u0131nda, ABD&#8217;de\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/politics\/2025\/02\/report-cybertruck-safety-ford-pinto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir veri hikayesi,<\/a>\u00a0ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta Tesla Cybertrucks i\u00e7in %14,5&#8217;lik bir yang\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 oldu\u011funu iddia etti; bu, yollardaki bu siyasi olarak kutupla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ara\u00e7lardan yedisinden biri i\u00e7in bir \u00f6l\u00fcm anlam\u0131na geliyordu &#8211; sa\u011fduyunun \u015f\u00fcpheli olarak i\u015faretlemesi gereken endi\u015fe verici derecede y\u00fcksek bir oran. LaFleur, yay\u0131n\u0131n daha sonra yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeye dikkat \u00e7ekti ve ger\u00e7ek oran\u0131n 1.000 kat daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck veya 100.000 ara\u00e7ta 14,5 \u00f6l\u00fcm oldu\u011funu kabul etti. (Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6rneklem boyutu ve &#8220;elma ve armut&#8221; veri sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle bu say\u0131 bile hatal\u0131yd\u0131. Veriler\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fuelarc.com\/evs\/its-official-the-cybertruck-is-more-explosive-than-the-ford-pinto\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">toplam iki araba kazas\u0131na<\/a>\u00a0ve Las Vegas&#8217;taki Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131 G\u00fcn\u00fc intihar bombas\u0131 olay\u0131na dayan\u0131yordu ve ayr\u0131ca sat\u0131lan tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 ara\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafife alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.)<\/p>\n<p>LaFleur, her \u015feyden \u00f6nce, &#8220;E\u011fer bir \u015fey do\u011fru gelmiyorsa i\u00e7g\u00fcd\u00fclerinizi dinleyin&#8221; diye \u00f6\u011f\u00fctl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Dowdell kendi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu \u015fekilde \u00f6zetledi: &#8220;Hikayelerinize kendi hipotezinizle ilgili sorular sorarak yakla\u015f\u0131n. Belki de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcz hikaye bu de\u011fildir. Hikayelerin \u00e7o\u011fu orijinal hipotezi asla desteklemez ve sonunda ba\u015fka bir yola sapar\u0131z; bu da genellikle daha ilgin\u00e7 ve kesinlikle daha do\u011fru bir hikayeyle sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ire.org\/product\/numbers-in-the-newsroom-using-math-and-statistics-in-news-second-edition-e-version\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ki veri uzman\u0131 ayr\u0131ca, Sarah Cohen taraf\u0131ndan yaz\u0131lan IRE&#8217;nin &#8221; Haber Odas\u0131ndaki Say\u0131lar<\/a>\u00a0&#8221; rehberinin ikinci bask\u0131s\u0131nda yer alan matematik tazeleme derslerini ve tavsiyeleri de \u00f6nerdi\u00a0. Bu el kitab\u0131ndaki ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u015funlard\u0131r:<\/p>\n<div class=\"post__text\">\n<div class=\"prose\">\n<p><b>Bir paragraftaki toplam rakam say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sekiz veya daha az tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131n.<\/b> Bir kural olmasa da bir k\u0131lavuz olarak uzmanlar, muhabirlere &#8220;al\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 se\u00e7ti\u011finiz kadar dikkatli rakamlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 da se\u00e7menizi&#8221; ve herhangi bir paragrafta bahsedilen toplam rakam say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 sekizle s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131z\u0131 tavsiye ediyor. Bu genellikle iki ayr\u0131 rakama (y\u00fczdeler gibi) ve bir y\u0131la at\u0131fta bulunmak anlam\u0131na gelir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki c\u00fcmlede birka\u00e7 rakam fazla olsa da, ondal\u0131k basamaklar olmadan en az\u0131ndan k\u0131lavuza yak\u0131n olurdu: &#8220;Fazlal\u0131k Giderme Ofisi&#8217;nin b\u00fct\u00e7esi 2024&#8217;te %48 artarak 700,3 milyon dolardan 1,03 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.&#8221; Daha da iyisi, tek bir rakama bile indirgenebilir: &#8220;Fazlal\u0131k Giderme Ofisi&#8217;nin b\u00fct\u00e7esi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l neredeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya artarak 1 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.&#8221; <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/IRE-Numbers-in-the-Newsroom-Guide.png\" alt=\"Haber Odas\u0131 Rehberinde IRE Rakamlar\u0131\" width=\"220\" height=\"348\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Ortalamalar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 almaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n.<\/b>\u00a0Cohen, haber odalar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u00e7a yap\u0131lan bu hatay\u0131 &#8220;bir sebze kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fazla pi\u015firmeye&#8221; benzetiyor ve \u015f\u00f6yle yaz\u0131yor: &#8220;Bazen muhabirler, \u00f6rne\u011fin bir b\u00fct\u00e7ede bir dizi y\u00fczdelik de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi al\u0131r ve &#8220;ortalama y\u00fczdelik de\u011fi\u015fiklik&#8221; i\u00e7in bir ortalama hesaplarlar. Bu, yeni ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir departmandaki %140&#8217;l\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131, e\u011fitimdeki %2&#8217;lik art\u0131\u015fla ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ele al\u0131r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><b>&#8220;Bir\/bir&#8221; risk olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak i\u00e7in basit bir y\u00f6ntem kullan\u0131n.<\/b>\u00a0Nadir olaylar\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamak ve raporlamak karma\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir, ama asl\u0131nda \u00f6yle de\u011fil. 4,3 milyonluk bir \u015fehirde her y\u0131l 20 ki\u015fiye y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7arp\u0131yorsa, bu kurbanlar\u0131 n\u00fcfusa b\u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, 0,000005 gibi anlams\u0131z bir say\u0131 elde ederiz. Ancak Cohen, bir say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck say\u0131lara b\u00f6lerek mant\u0131kl\u0131 &#8220;bir\/bir&#8221; say\u0131y\u0131 elde edebilece\u011fimizi belirtiyor; bu durumda: o \u015fehirde bir y\u0131lda y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7arpma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 200.000&#8217;de bir.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><b><i><a href=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/336x336-staff-profile-photo-Rowan-Philp.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-2011184 size-thumbnail image--small\" src=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/336x336-staff-profile-photo-Rowan-Philp-140x140.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 140px) 100vw, 140px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/336x336-staff-profile-photo-Rowan-Philp-140x140.png 140w, https:\/\/gijn.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/336x336-staff-profile-photo-Rowan-Philp.png 336w\" alt=\"\" width=\"140\" height=\"140\" \/><\/a><\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/gijn.org\/staff-member\/rowan-philp\/\"><strong><i>Rowan Philp,<\/i><\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<i>GIJN&#8217;nin k\u0131demli muhabiri ve etki edit\u00f6r\u00fcd\u00fcr. Daha \u00f6nce G\u00fcney Afrika&#8217;n\u0131n<\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.timeslive.co.za\/sunday-times\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i>\u00a0Sunday Times<\/i><\/a><i>\u00a0gazetesinin ba\u015f muhabiriydi . D\u0131\u015f muhabir olarak, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda yirmiden fazla \u00fclkeden haberler, siyaset, yolsuzluk ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma konular\u0131nda haber yapt\u0131.<\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"post__rightcolumn\">\n<div class=\"related widget widget--stories\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NICAR 2025 panelinde, veri gazetecili\u011fi uzmanlar\u0131, ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 gazetecilerin s\u0131kl\u0131kla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve okuyucular\u0131 yan\u0131ltarak haberin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bozabilecek ince say\u0131sal hatalar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3031167,"featured_media":2193440,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"republication-tracker-tool-hide-widget":false,"footnotes":"","_tec_slr_enabled":"","_tec_slr_layout":""},"categories":[23206],"tags":[28385,28386,19956],"gijn_topic":[18925],"series":[],"gijn_language":[],"gijn_region":[],"class_list":["post-2481360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hikayeler","tag-istatistiksel-hatalar","tag-nicar25-tr","tag-veri-gorsellestirme-tr","gijn_topic-veri-gazeteciligi"],"acf":[],"ticketed":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2481360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3031167"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2481360"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2481360\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2481362,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2481360\/revisions\/2481362"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2193440"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2481360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2481360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2481360"},{"taxonomy":"gijn_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gijn_topic?post=2481360"},{"taxonomy":"series","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/series?post=2481360"},{"taxonomy":"gijn_language","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gijn_language?post=2481360"},{"taxonomy":"gijn_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gijn.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/gijn_region?post=2481360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}